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A Proposal That Raised More Questions Than Answers
A recent series of public statements and social media posts by Donald Trump have
sparked widespread confusion across the Middle East and beyond. The former U.S.
president suggested an ambitious diplomatic framework linking a potential
agreement to end tensions with Iran to a major expansion of the Abraham
Accords, the normalization deal originally launched during his first term.
In his vision, several countries—including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan,
Turkey, and even Pakistan—would join the accords and establish formal diplomatic
relations with Israel as part of a broader regional settlement. He even floated the
idea that Iran itself could eventually become part of the agreement.
However, across diplomatic circles, academic institutions, and regional
governments, the reaction has largely ranged from disbelief to open skepticism.
Many analysts describe the proposal as disconnected from current political
realities in the Middle East, especially given ongoing conflicts, public opinion in
Arab states, and unresolved disputes over Palestinian statehood.
The Abraham Accords: A Quick Reminder of What They
Actually Achieved
To understand the controversy, it is important to revisit what the Abraham Accords
originally accomplished.
Signed in 2020, the agreements normalized relations between Israel and several
Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and later Morocco.
These deals were widely presented in Washington as a historic breakthrough in
Middle Eastern diplomacy, opening the door to trade, tourism, security
cooperation, and technological exchange.
However, experts have long pointed out a key limitation: none of these agreements
resolved the central Arab-Israeli conflict. The accords were built around countries
that were not actively at war with Israel, meaning they sidestepped the most
politically sensitive issue in the region—Palestinian statehood.
While the agreements improved economic and strategic ties between signatories,
they did not represent a comprehensive regional peace. In fact, they gradually
highlighted a growing divide between countries willing to normalize relations with
Israel and those facing strong domestic or ideological resistance.
Trump’s New Proposal: Linking Iran Talks to Normalization
The latest controversy stems from Trump’s suggestion that any diplomatic progress
with Iran should be tied to expanding the Abraham Accords. In practical terms, this
would mean countries engaging in negotiations with the United States over Iran
would also be expected—or pressured—to recognize Israel.
Trump framed the idea in unusually direct terms, implying that participation
should be “mandatory” and that countries failing to comply could be excluded
from broader agreements. He also argued that recognition of Israel should
accompany any deal involving Iran, suggesting a bundled diplomatic package that
merges two separate geopolitical tracks.
This linkage immediately raised concerns among analysts who view Iran
negotiations and Arab-Israeli normalization as fundamentally different diplomatic
arenas with distinct political constraints.
Regional Reaction: Silence, Skepticism, and Rejection
Across the Middle East, reactions were swift but largely unofficial. Governments did
not rush to endorse or reject the idea publicly, but behind closed doors, diplomats
described the proposal as unrealistic.
Several reasons explain this reaction:
First, many of the countries named—such as Egypt and Jordan—already maintain
peace agreements with Israel, making their inclusion in an expanded accord
largely symbolic rather than transformative.
Second, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan have no formal diplomatic
relations with Israel and face significant domestic opposition to normalization.
Public opinion in these countries has become even more sensitive due to the
ongoing violence in Gaza and broader regional instability.
Third, governments in the Gulf and South Asia are currently focused on managing
the consequences of regional wars, energy security concerns, and economic
diversification strategies. For many, opening a new diplomatic front with Israel is
not a priority.
The Saudi Position: Palestine Remains Central
Saudi Arabia is arguably the most important player in any discussion about
expanding normalization agreements. As the largest Arab economy and home to
Islam’s two holiest sites, its diplomatic decisions carry enormous regional weight.
However, Saudi officials have repeatedly emphasized that any move toward formal
relations with Israel depends on progress toward Palestinian statehood. This
condition has remained consistent across multiple administrations in Washington.
In the current context—where the Gaza conflict has intensified regional anger and
further complicated Israeli-Palestinian negotiations—the Saudi position appears
even more rigid. Analysts suggest that Riyadh is unlikely to make any major
diplomatic shift without significant concessions on Palestinian sovereignty.
Pakistan and Turkey: Domestic Politics as a Barrier
Pakistan’s response was particularly firm. Officials reiterated that the country does
not recognize Israel and has no intention of joining any normalization framework.
Pakistani law also restricts travel to Israel, reflecting long-standing political and
ideological positions.
Public sentiment in Pakistan strongly supports the Palestinian cause, making any
shift toward normalization politically risky for any government in Islamabad.
Turkey presents a more complex case. While it maintains formal diplomatic
relations with Israel, relations have fluctuated significantly in recent years due to
conflicts in Gaza and broader regional tensions. Even so, full alignment under an
expanded Abraham Accords framework would face strong political scrutiny within
Turkey’s domestic political landscape.
The Iran Dimension: A Separate and Volatile Equation
One of the most controversial elements of Trump’s proposal is the suggestion that
a diplomatic settlement with Iran could be tied to normalization with Israel.
From a strategic standpoint, analysts argue that this linkage is highly problematic.
Negotiations with Iran revolve around nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional
security arrangements. In contrast, normalization with Israel involves long-
standing ideological, historical, and political disputes that are deeply embedded in
regional identity politics.
Iran itself remains firmly opposed to Israel and has built much of its regional
foreign policy around resisting Israeli influence. The idea that Tehran could join a
normalization framework is widely viewed by experts as implausible under current
conditions.
Israel’s Perspective: Strategic Gains but Political Constraints
From Israel’s point of view, expanding the Abraham Accords would represent a
major diplomatic victory, particularly if it included Saudi Arabia. Normalization
with Riyadh has long been seen as a strategic milestone that could reshape
regional alliances.
However, Israeli domestic politics complicate this picture. The current government
is widely viewed as one of the most right-leaning in the country’s history, and its
stance on Palestinian statehood remains firmly opposed. This position directly
conflicts with the conditions set by several Arab states for normalization.
As a result, even if diplomatic momentum were to build externally, internal political
disagreements could limit progress.
U.S. Foreign Policy Challenges: Strategy or Messaging?
Critics argue that Trump’s proposal reflects a broader uncertainty in U.S. Middle
East policy. Some analysts interpret the announcement as an attempt to reassert a
signature diplomatic initiative from his first term, while others see it as political
messaging aimed at domestic audiences.
There is also speculation that the proposal could be designed to influence internal
U.S. political debates, particularly among foreign policy hawks and supporters of a
more assertive stance toward Iran.
However, many diplomats in the region believe the proposal does not align with
current geopolitical realities. The combination of ongoing conflicts, regional
distrust, and shifting alliances makes a rapid expansion of normalization
agreements highly unlikely.
Public Opinion: A Critical and Often Overlooked Factor
One of the most important barriers to expanding the Abraham Accords is public
sentiment across the Middle East.
In many Arab and Muslim-majority countries, support for normalization with Israel
remains low, especially following periods of intensified conflict in Gaza and
Lebanon. Governments considering diplomatic recognition must weigh not only
strategic benefits but also potential domestic backlash.
This dynamic makes any externally imposed or accelerated normalization
framework politically sensitive. Analysts warn that pushing normalization without
addressing underlying grievances could increase resistance rather than reduce it.
The Gaza War’s Shadow Over Diplomacy
The ongoing consequences of conflict in Gaza continue to shape regional
diplomacy. The humanitarian impact and political fallout have significantly
hardened attitudes toward Israel in many parts of the region.
This environment makes it more difficult for leaders to justify new diplomatic
agreements with Israel, especially without visible progress toward resolving
Palestinian issues.
As a result, many regional governments are prioritizing de-escalation,
humanitarian concerns, and economic stability over new geopolitical
commitments.
Analysts Call the Proposal “Disconnected” from Reality
Across think tanks and policy institutions, the reaction to Trump’s proposal has
been cautious at best. Some analysts describe it as strategically ambitious but
politically unrealistic, while others argue it reflects a misunderstanding of current
regional dynamics.
The core criticism is that the proposal attempts to merge separate and complex
issues—Iran negotiations, Israeli normalization, and regional security architecture
—into a single framework that may not be viable.
Ambition Meets Geopolitical Reality
Trump’s call to expand the Abraham Accords as part of a broader Iran peace
strategy has undeniably reignited debate about the future of Middle East
diplomacy. However, the overwhelming reaction from the region suggests a
significant gap between political vision and practical feasibility.
While the Abraham Accords remain an important diplomatic achievement, their
expansion into a universal regional framework faces substantial obstacles:
unresolved conflicts, domestic political constraints, public opinion, and deep
mistrust between key actors.
For now, the idea appears less like an imminent diplomatic breakthrough and more
like a reflection of how complex and fragmented Middle Eastern geopolitics have
become.
Whether future negotiations can bridge this gap remains uncertain—but at present,
Most governments in the region seem focused not on expanding agreements, but
on managing instability and avoiding further escalation.
