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Rising Protests, Global Tensions, and a Narrow Diplomatic Window
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump has said that Iran is seeking
negotiations with Washington, even as a brutal government crackdown on
nationwide protests has driven the reported death toll to at least 599 people,
according to human rights groups. The unfolding crisis marks one of the most
severe challenges to Iran’s ruling clerical establishment in decades and has sharply
raised the risk of military confrontation in an already volatile Middle East.
Trump’s comments came amid mounting international alarm over Iran’s handling of
the demonstrations, which began as protests over economic collapse but rapidly
evolved into direct calls for regime change. With Iran’s currency in freefall,
communications largely cut off, and security forces deploying lethal force, the
situation has become a defining geopolitical flashpoint with global economic and
security implications.
Trump Signals Willingness to Talk — While Warning of Force
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, President Trump said Iran “wants to
negotiate,” suggesting that private diplomatic messages sent to Washington
diverge sharply from Tehran’s public rhetoric.
“I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States,” Trump said. “Iran wants
to negotiate.”
At the same time, Trump emphasized that diplomacy is not guaranteed to prevent
military action. His administration is reportedly reviewing a wide range of options,
including cyberattacks, expanded sanctions, and potential military strikes, should
Iran’s leadership continue its violent suppression of protesters.
“If they retaliate, we will hit them at levels they’ve never been hit before,” Trump
warned, underscoring the high stakes of the moment.
Death Toll Rises as Crackdown Intensifies
According to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), at least
599 people have been killed since protests erupted on December 28. Of those, 510
were protesters and 89 were members of Iran’s security forces. The same group
reports that more than 10,600 people have been arrested, a figure that continues
to climb daily.
Iranian authorities have not released official casualty numbers, instead blaming
the violence on what they describe as foreign-backed terrorists, particularly
accusing the United States and Israel of orchestrating unrest.
Independent verification has been difficult due to a near-total internet blackout,
although verified videos have surfaced showing rows of body bags at forensic
centers in Tehran, fueling international outrage.
Iran’s Official Response: Control, Blame, and Conditional Diplomacy
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that the situation was “under total
control,” telling foreign diplomats that the demonstrations had turned violent due
to alleged foreign interference.
“That’s why the demonstrations turned bloody,” Araghchi said, claiming the unrest
was designed to provoke U.S. intervention.
Despite the hardline tone, Araghchi acknowledged that channels of communication
with Washington remain open, signaling Tehran’s interest in avoiding further
escalation.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei echoed that stance, saying any
talks must be based on “mutual interests” and not dictated by U.S. demands — a
clear reference to Washington’s longstanding insistence that Iran curb its nuclear
program and ballistic missile development.
Oman’s Quiet Role as a Diplomatic Bridge
Adding to speculation about renewed diplomacy, the foreign minister of Oman — a
country that has historically served as a mediator between Iran and the U.S. —
traveled to Tehran shortly before Trump’s remarks.
While no details were disclosed, Oman’s involvement has historically preceded
major diplomatic breakthroughs, including early negotiations over Iran’s nuclear
program. Analysts say this visit may indicate behind-the-scenes efforts to prevent
the crisis from spiraling into open conflict.
Pro-Government Rallies and the Language of Fear
On Monday, Iranian state television broadcast images of massive pro-government
demonstrations in Tehran and other cities. Crowds chanted “Death to America!”
and “Death to Israel!” while officials framed the rallies as a national uprising
against “American-Zionist terrorism.”
Iran’s attorney general warned that protesters could be charged as “enemies of
God,” a capital offense under Iranian law. Text messages sent by police and
intelligence services urged families to keep young people indoors, warning of a
“firm decision” to deal decisively with demonstrators.
Witnesses in Tehran described a city gripped by fear, with streets empty after
sunset and security forces patrolling neighborhoods aggressively.
Economic Collapse at the Heart of the Protests
The protests were triggered by the dramatic collapse of Iran’s currency, the rial,
which now trades at more than 1.4 million to the U.S. dollar. Years of international
sanctions, compounded by mismanagement and corruption, have devastated
purchasing power and pushed millions into poverty.
What began as demonstrations over rising prices quickly transformed into a
nationwide movement calling for the end of clerical rule, posing the most serious
internal threat to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in nearly five decades.
Experts say the combination of economic desperation and political repression has
created a volatile situation that security force violence may only intensify.
U.S. Tariffs Raise the Pressure
In a further escalation, President Trump announced that countries doing business
with Iran would face a 25% tariff from the United States, effective immediately. The
move targets major trading partners including China, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and the
United Arab Emirates.
The White House described the tariffs as part of a broader strategy to pressure
Iran’s leadership while avoiding direct conflict. Trump has long favored economic
leverage as a tool to force geopolitical concessions, and analysts say the measure
could significantly impact Iran’s already strained economy.
Global oil markets reacted swiftly, with prices hitting seven-week highs amid fears
that Iranian exports could be disrupted by political instability or U.S. military
action.
Military Options Remain on the Table
Despite repeated references to diplomacy, Trump has made clear that military
options are being actively considered. According to officials familiar with internal
discussions, those options include targeted strikes, covert cyber operations, and
expanded support for opposition groups.
The prospect of military action carries enormous risks. Many Iranian military
installations are located near civilian areas, raising fears of mass casualties and
regional escalation involving Israel, Hezbollah, and U.S. forces across the Middle
East.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned Washington against
“miscalculation,” stating that U.S. bases and Israeli territory would be “legitimate
targets” if Iran is attacked.
A Regime Under Unprecedented Pressure
Iran’s leadership is still recovering from last year’s regional conflicts, including a
brief but intense war in June during which Israeli and U.S. forces struck Iranian
nuclear facilities and killed senior military commanders.
At the same time, Tehran’s influence has weakened significantly due to losses
suffered by key allies such as Hezbollah. Analysts say Iran’s reduced regional clout
limits its ability to retaliate without risking devastating consequences.
Former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, speaking from exile, has urged Trump to
intervene sooner rather than later, positioning himself as a potential transitional
leader should the regime fall — a prospect Iranian officials fiercely reject.
A Turning Point for Iran and the Region
With protests showing no sign of fading and international pressure mounting, Iran
stands at a crossroads. The government faces a stark choice between escalation
and engagement — between tightening repression or pursuing meaningful
negotiations with Washington.
For the United States, the crisis presents a complex challenge: how to support
human rights and regional stability without triggering a broader war. Trump’s dual
message of diplomacy backed by force reflects that tension.
As the death toll rises and Iran’s streets remain restless, the coming days may
determine whether this moment leads to historic negotiations or a dangerous
escalation with global consequences.
