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The Trump administration has stirred significant controversy across Europe after
releasing a new National Security Strategy (NSS) that warns the continent could
face what it calls “civilizational erasure” within the next two decades. The
document argues that Europe is being weakened by migration, declining
birthrates, and centralizing policies adopted by the European Union, and it
suggests that the United States should encourage “resistance” to Europe’s current
direction.
Published late Thursday by the White House, the 33-page strategy outlines
President Donald Trump’s renewed “America First” foreign policy and reveals a
starkly different vision for transatlantic relations than the one pursued under the
previous Biden administration. While past US policy typically emphasized strong
cooperation with Europe, Trump’s new strategy takes a more confrontational tone,
raising questions among allies and analysts about the future of the US–Europe
partnership.
A Message That Surprised US Allies
The document, introduced with a signed message from President Trump himself,
describes Europe as a continent facing major political and social crises. It claims
Europe is suffering from:
a loss of national identity,
restrictive EU regulations,
migration pressures,
limits on free speech, and
the suppression of political opposition.
The strategy argues that these trends are pushing Europe toward dramatic cultural
and demographic changes. According to the NSS, “several countries risk becoming
majority non-European,” a statement that has drawn criticism for echoing the
controversial “great replacement” conspiracy theory.
While the White House insists the document is based on strategic analysis,
European officials reacted with discomfort. Many believe the wording is unusually
alarmist for a US policy paper and unnecessarily interferes in internal European
debates.
Germany’s foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, criticized the tone of the NSS, saying
that Europe does not need “outside advice” on how to organize its democratic
societies or manage free speech. He emphasized that while the US remains an
important ally, European democracies are fully capable of debating and
addressing their own challenges.
Open Support for Europe’s Far-Right Movements
One of the most discussed elements of the new NSS is its explicit support for
nationalist and far-right political parties across Europe. The document praises
what it calls “patriotic European parties” and suggests that their growing influence
offers “great optimism” for the future of Europe.
For Washington, this is portrayed as part of a strategy to encourage countries to
strengthen national identity, reduce reliance on EU-level decisions, and take more
control over their own security. The strategy states that the US should “stand up
for genuine democracy” and “celebrate individual national character.”
This position marks a major shift from traditional US diplomacy, which has
historically avoided showing preference for specific political parties in allied
democracies. The document effectively signals that the Trump administration
views Europe’s nationalist movements as natural ideological partners.
The NSS also follows a pattern of previous interactions. In recent years, figures from
far-right parties such as Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) have visited
Washington, where they met with Trump administration officials. The new strategy
formalizes this alignment, making it part of official US policy.
Migration at the Center of Trump’s Concerns
Migration is one of the central themes of the new strategy. The NSS argues that
Europe’s migration policies have reshaped the continent in ways that threaten its
long-term stability. It states that Europe must “remain European” and prevent
“civilizational erasure.”
European leaders reject these conclusions. They argue that while migration
presents challenges, it does not justify alarmist claims or predictions of
irreversible decline. Analysts note that the language used in the NSS is unusual for
a formal government document and appears to reflect political rhetoric more than
typical security analysis.
Even so, migration continues to be one of the most divisive issues in European
politics, with strong disagreements among EU member states. The Trump
administration’s stance may further inflame these debates, especially in countries
where nationalist parties are already gaining ground.
Europe, Russia, and the War in Ukraine
Another major focus of the NSS is the Russia–Ukraine war. The Trump
administration says it seeks a rapid end to the conflict, arguing that the war is
destabilizing Europe and preventing the US from establishing a more balanced
relationship with Moscow.
The strategy says the US has a “core interest” in restoring strategic stability with
Russia and suggests that certain European governments have “unrealistic
expectations” about the war. It also argues that many European leaders—
especially those in fragile coalition governments—are ignoring public desires for
peace.
This section of the NSS is already generating concern in Europe, particularly in
Eastern European states who remain deeply wary of Russia. France added to the
tension when President Emmanuel Macron reportedly warned President Zelenskyy
that the US could “betray Ukraine on territory,” highlighting the fear that a US-
brokered settlement might favor Russian territorial gains.
The document also claims Europeans “regard Russia as an existential threat,”
despite having “significant hard power advantages.” Critics say this analysis
oversimplifies the strategic realities facing countries near the Russian border.
Economic and Trade Implications
Beyond security concerns, the NSS lays out a clear economic vision for the United
States in its dealings with Europe. It argues that European markets must become
more open to US products and criticizes EU regulations as “suffocating”
innovation.
For the Trump administration, strengthening America’s economic position in
Europe is essential to competing with China and ensuring the long-term vitality of
the US economy. The NSS suggests that Europe’s economic struggles—combined
with its demographic challenges—make it less reliable as an economic partner
unless major reforms are undertaken.
A New “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine
The strategy extends beyond Europe. In a nod to historical US policy, the document
introduces what it calls a “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.” The Monroe
Doctrine traditionally warned European powers against interfering in the Western
Hemisphere; the Trump version adds a stronger US military role in Latin America.
The strategy describes “targeted deployments” to fight drug cartels, secure the US
border, and pressure governments such as that of Venezuela. It also hints that the
US might use military force in certain cases where law enforcement measures are
considered insufficient.
This approach reflects a more assertive US posture in Latin America, even as the
administration continues to emphasize restraint in other parts of the world.
Growing Tensions Within Europe
Reactions across Europe vary. While Western European governments largely reject
the NSS’s conclusions, some Central and Eastern European leaders have responded
more positively. In countries where migration and national identity are major
political issues, the US strategy may be seen as supportive rather than
confrontational.
Still, the NSS risks widening political divisions within the EU itself. Some analysts
say that by aligning with nationalist movements, Washington is taking sides in
Europe’s internal debates, potentially complicating diplomatic relations.
The long-term implications remain uncertain. Europe may seek to establish a more
independent foreign policy, especially regarding Russia and China, if it feels the US
is no longer a consistent or predictable partner.
What This Means for the Transatlantic Relationship
The new National Security Strategy marks one of the most dramatic shifts in US–
Europe relations in decades. Instead of presenting Europe as a unified democratic
partner, the Trump administration portrays the continent as a region in decline—
one whose internal policies jeopardize its future and its reliability as an ally.
For supporters of the strategy, the document offers a realistic assessment of
Europe’s challenges and a necessary push toward stronger national sovereignty.
For critics, it risks destabilizing long-standing alliances, encouraging ideological
polarization, and weakening the collective Western response to global threats.
Whatever the interpretation, the NSS signals a turning point. Europe and the United
States may be entering a new era in which their partnership is no longer taken for
granted. Instead, it will have to be renegotiated, redefined, and rebuilt in the face of
shifting political interests, security concerns, and ideological differences.
The coming months will reveal how both sides respond—and whether the
transatlantic relationship can adapt to this new and uncertain reality.
