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On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin informed U.S. President Donald
Trump that Russia would be compelled to respond to recent Ukrainian drone
attacks on its nuclear-capable bomber fleet. This declaration came amidst
escalating tensions in the nearly four-month-old conflict in Ukraine, a war that has
seen the deadliest fighting in Europe since World War Two. Despite the alarming
news of potential escalation, Putin also described ongoing peace talks with
Ukraine as "useful," an assessment that offers a glimmer of hope amidst the
intensifying hostilities.
The conversation between the two leaders, lasting one hour and fifteen minutes,
occurred shortly after Ukraine launched drone strikes on bridges and, more
significantly, on Russia's fleet of strategic bombers located deep within Siberia and
the far north. Following these attacks, Putin, during a meeting with top ministers in
Moscow, expressed his doubt that Ukraine's leaders genuinely desired peace.
Trump, in a series of posts on social media, confirmed the call with Putin, stating,
"We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes, by Ukraine, and also
various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good
conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate peace." He further
elaborated, "President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond
to the recent attack on the airfields."
These remarks from Putin come after Russia has unleashed several massive aerial
attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks, indicating a cycle of escalating retaliation.
Yuri Ushakov, a foreign policy aide to Putin, elaborated on the call, emphasizing
that the Russian leader had detailed the content of the ceasefire talks with Kyiv,
describing them as productive despite what he termed Ukrainian attempts to
"disrupt" them. "Let me stress that our president described in detail the content of
the talks and that these talks on the whole were useful," Ushakov stated. He added
that memorandums outlining peace plans had been exchanged and would be
analyzed, expressing hope that "afterwards the two sides will be able to continue
their talks."
Ushakov also confirmed that the two presidents discussed other international
issues, particularly the Middle East conflict and how Russia could assist in
addressing Iran and its nuclear program. On this point, Trump noted his belief that
Putin agreed with Washington that Iran "cannot have a nuclear weapon," and
accused Tehran of "slowwalking" decisions regarding the talks.
Significantly, Trump has maintained an unusual silence on the Ukrainian attacks on
Russia's strategic bombers – a crucial component of Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Moscow, meanwhile, has vociferously demanded that the United States and Britain
restrain Ukraine. The Kremlin indicated that Trump had assured Putin that
Washington was not informed in advance of the Ukrainian attacks. Keith Kellogg,
Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, underscored the heightened risk of
escalation from the war, particularly after these strikes, stating, "People have to
understand in the national security space: when you attack an opponent’s part of
their national survival system, which is their triad, the nuclear triad, that means
your risk level goes up because you don’t know what the other side is going to do.
You’re not sure."
Russia and the United States collectively possess approximately 88% of the world's
nuclear weapons, making them the two largest nuclear powers. Both nations rely
on a "nuclear triad" for deterrence, comprising strategic bombers, land-launched
intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Any
attack on any part of this triad is universally considered a grave escalation with
potentially catastrophic consequences.
War or Peace? The Escalating Rhetoric
In some of his most hawkish remarks in recent months concerning the prospects for
peace, Putin on Wednesday characterized the bridge attacks as having been
directed against civilians. He further accused Ukrainian leadership of being a
"terrorist organization" supported by powers who were consequently becoming
"terrorist accomplices."
"The current Kyiv regime does not need peace at all," Putin asserted during a
meeting with senior officials. "What is there to talk about? How can we negotiate
with those who rely on terror?" Ukraine has not publicly commented on the bridge
attacks and, like Russia, denies targeting civilians, though civilian casualties have
tragically occurred on both sides of the conflict. Kyiv has, in turn, accused Moscow
of a lack of genuine commitment to peace, citing Russia's resistance to an
immediate ceasefire as evidence. Russia, for its part, maintains that certain
conditions must be met before a ceasefire can be implemented.
Notably, Putin did not mention the bomber attacks in his public remarks, which
occurred just prior to direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.
During these talks, Moscow laid out what the United States has termed
"maximalist" aims, further complicating the path to a negotiated settlement.
Before Putin's public statements, other Russian officials had already indicated that
"military options were on the table" in response to Ukrainian attacks deep inside
Russian territory. They also accused the West of involvement in these strikes. "We
urge London and Washington to react in such a way as to stop further escalation,"
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees relations with the
U.S. and arms control, was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. Both
British and U.S. officials have asserted they had no prior knowledge of the weekend
attacks on Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers. The White House
specifically stated that Trump was not informed of Ukraine's drone attack before it
unfolded.
The call between Putin and Trump was their second conversation within weeks,
highlighting the ongoing, albeit often fraught, diplomatic engagement between
the two nations. Trump, who announced the call on Truth Social, did not mention
applying pressure on the Russian leader to agree to a ceasefire or to temper his
reprisal for Ukraine’s audacious drone attack. Instead, his matter-of-fact
description of the call offered little evidence of concrete advancement in his
stated attempts to end the war. Last week, Trump had claimed he would be able to
determine within two weeks whether Putin was serious about negotiating a
ceasefire, but he has offered few details on how he would make that assessment.
Meanwhile, there has been increasing pressure on Trump to impose additional
sanctions against Russia, a course of action he has thus far resisted.
Despite the recent escalation, Russian and Ukrainian officials had met earlier this
week in Istanbul for direct talks aimed at ending the war. However, both sides
emerged from these discussions without budging from their entrenched positions.
Trump has taken credit for facilitating these face-to-face discussions, albeit
without immediate breakthroughs.
Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov confirmed that Putin had briefed Trump on the latest
round of talks on Wednesday. "As was emphasized, Ukraine tried to disrupt these
negotiations by carrying out, on the direct orders of the Kyiv regime, targeted
attacks on purely civilian targets, on the peaceful population," Ushakov stated,
though he did not specify which attacks he was referring to. He added that "The
leaders agreed to continue further contacts on the Ukrainian issue, including at
the highest level and at other levels and through other channels," suggesting that
despite the immediate lack of progress, diplomatic avenues remain open.
Neither Trump nor the White House had publicly reacted to the weekend drone
attacks beyond stating that Ukrainian officials had not informed them of the
planned assault beforehand. Previously, Trump had been more outspoken in his
condemnation of Putin following Russian aerial assaults on Ukrainian cities.
New footage released on Wednesday, however, offered a stark visual testament to
the precision of the Ukrainian strikes. The video, released by the SBU, Ukraine’s
security agency, showed drones approaching dozens of planes of different types
across several airfields, with aircraft burning and exploding around them.
Ukrainian military officials claimed that 41 Russian aircraft were hit, including
strategic bombers and surveillance planes, with some destroyed and others
damaged. This footage, showcasing the surgical precision of the Ukrainian attacks,
underscores the increasing sophistication of Ukraine’s defense capabilities and its
willingness to strike deep within Russian territory.
The telephone call between Putin and Trump coincided with a meeting in
Washington between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Andriy Yermak, the
head of Ukraine’s presidential office, to discuss the U.S. posture amidst the
ongoing war. A senior administration official indicated that Rubio was expected to
convey to Yermak that the Ukrainian position—which the U.S. views as
demonstrating flexibility and a desire for a ceasefire—was useful. However, the
Secretary of State also planned to inform the Ukrainian official that a return to a
"Biden-era policy of unlimited military support for Ukraine" would not occur,
signaling a shift in U.S. aid strategy under the Trump administration.
Following his meeting with Rubio, Yermak posted on social media that they had
discussed the “urgent need to strengthen support for Ukraine’s air defense,”
underscoring the critical importance of air defense capabilities for Ukraine in the
face of ongoing Russian aerial assaults. The dramatic backdrop of Ukraine’s drone
strikes deep inside Russia undoubtedly shaped these Washington discussions. U.S
. officials noted that the Trump administration had not moved to warn Ukraine
against such attacks, despite the acknowledgment that the strikes increased the
level of risk in the conflict.
In his readout of the Wednesday call, Trump also stated that he had discussed Iran
with Putin, as he continues his efforts to complete a nuclear agreement with
Tehran. "We also discussed Iran, and the fact that time is running out on Iran’s
decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly!" he wrote. "I
stated to President Putin that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and, on this, I
believe that we were in agreement." Trump suggested that Putin would likely
participate in discussions with Iran, stating, "President Putin suggested that he will
participate in the discussions with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in
getting this brought to a rapid conclusion. It is my opinion that Iran has been
slowwalking their decision on this very important matter, and we will need a
definitive answer in a very short period of time!" Ushakov confirmed that the two
leaders discussed negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, with Trump
indicating that assistance from Russia "may be needed." This suggests a potential
area of cooperation between the U.S. and Russia, even as their differences on the
Ukrainian conflict remain stark.
The confluence of these events – Ukraine's audacious deep-strike drone attacks,
Putin's firm warning of retaliation, the cautious yet ongoing peace talks, and the
high-stakes diplomatic engagements in Washington – paints a complex and
volatile picture. The potential for further escalation in Ukraine remains a dominant
concern, particularly given Russia's stated intent to respond to attacks on its
strategic assets. The involvement of nuclear-capable forces, even indirectly, raises
the stakes significantly.
The Trump administration’s approach to the conflict, emphasizing a desire for
peace while navigating the intricacies of military aid and diplomatic engagement,
presents a nuanced and at times contradictory stance. The shift away from
"unlimited military support" for Ukraine, as indicated by Secretary Rubio, could
signal a recalibration of U.S. policy, potentially impacting Ukraine's ability to
defend itself and project power. However, the U.S. has not actively sought to
restrain Ukraine from conducting strikes within Russian territory, implicitly
acknowledging Ukraine's right to self-defense.
Meanwhile, the dialogue between Putin and Trump, despite its limited immediate
impact on peace, underscores the enduring importance of direct communication
between the leaders of the world's two largest nuclear powers. Even if a rapid
resolution to the conflict seems distant, the willingness to maintain channels of
communication, even on contentious issues, is seen by some as a crucial
safeguard against miscalculation and unintended escalation. The discussion on
Iran, a separate but equally critical geopolitical flashpoint, further illustrates the
breadth of issues that require engagement between Washington and Moscow.
The immediate future of the conflict appears to hinge on several factors: the nature
and scale of Russia's promised retaliation, the continued effectiveness of Ukraine's
defensive and offensive operations, the trajectory of international support for
Ukraine, and the effectiveness of ongoing, albeit fragile, peace talks. The shadow of
nuclear escalation, while remote, looms large, reminding all parties of the
immense stakes involved. The world watches, holding its breath, as these
geopolitical forces collide, hoping that diplomacy, however difficult, can ultimately
prevail over continued bloodshed and destruction. The coming days and weeks will
undoubtedly reveal the true extent of Russia's response and, perhaps, whether the
seeds of peace, however faint, can take root in the war-torn landscape of Ukraine.
