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Oh, the irony! Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial kickoff to summer, is set to be
anything but summery for millions in the Eastern United States. Instead of
sunshine and warmth, a rare May nor’easter is poised to deliver a gloomy, chilly,
and altogether miserable start to the long holiday weekend. If you were dreaming
of beach days and barbecues, you might want to adjust your expectations – unless
your idea of a good time involves heavy rain, gusty winds, and temperatures that
feel more like early March than late May.
This isn't your typical late-spring weather pattern. Nor’easters, those formidable
coastal storms that track along the East Coast, are usually reserved for the colder
months, from September through April. They thrive on the clash of cold air
sweeping down from the north and warmer air pushing up from the Atlantic, a
scenario that fuels a strong jet stream. But in late spring and early fall,
temperatures across the East typically align more closely with the Atlantic,
weakening the jet stream and making nor’easters a rare occurrence.
So, what's brewing this week that defies the norm? The current weather pattern in
the East looks eerily similar to what you'd expect as winter gives way to spring,
despite summer being just around the corner. And the culprit, surprisingly, might
be found far to the north.
The Arctic Anomaly: Fueling a Southern Chill
Right now, parts of the Arctic are experiencing unusually high temperatures.
Iceland has seen a record-hot May, while Greenland and Arctic Canada are also
feeling unseasonable warmth. This isn't just an interesting weather quirk; it's a
significant factor in our current predicament. This Arctic heat is essentially
dislodging colder air and sending it farther south than is typical for nearly-June,
setting up the precise temperature clash needed to power this rare May nor’easter.
This phenomenon isn't entirely new. A warming Arctic has already been linked to
changes in nor’easters. Studies have shown that as parts of the Arctic heat up
faster than the rest of the globe due to fossil fuel pollution, it may be causing
winter nor’easters to become more intense. While this particular May nor’easter
might not be a direct result of that long-term trend, it certainly highlights how a
shifting climate can lead to unusual and impactful weather events.
A One-Two Punch: What to Expect for Your Memorial Day Plans
The East Coast is bracing for a double whammy of stormy weather. A first storm is
already bringing cool, wet conditions to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The
nor’easter will then develop overnight on Thursday, pushing slowly off the Mid-
Atlantic coast.
While nor’easters are typically powerful storms capable of significant impacts, this
week's iteration is expected to pack a relatively milder punch. However, "milder" is
a subjective term when you're talking about a storm that will still make for a
thoroughly unpleasant holiday lead-up.
The nor’easter will strengthen somewhat as it grinds its way towards New England,
bringing more rain and gusty winds to the Northeast and churning up rough seas
along much of the coast into the weekend.
Most of the Northeast can expect to see up to 2 inches of rain through Saturday,
with some localized spots in southern New England, parts of New Jersey, and New
York possibly receiving closer to 3 inches. Given that the region has already seen
quite a bit of rain in recent weeks, there's a risk of localized flooding and rises on
waterways, though widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.
And while nor’easters are synonymous with snow, don't get your hopes up for a
late-season powder day. Despite temperatures dropping into the 40s in parts of
northern New England, any chances for snow are extremely low and will be
confined to the highest mountain peaks.
It will be breezy across parts of the Northeast from Thursday through Saturday,
particularly in southern New England. The combination of saturated soils, rain, and
gusty winds could lead to some downed trees and power lines, adding another
layer of inconvenience. The damp, windy conditions are also likely to hinder travel,
whether you're hitting the road or navigating the region's busy airports. Expect
delays and plan accordingly.
A Glimmer of Hope for Monday
For those despairing over their Memorial Day plans, there is a glimmer of hope on
the horizon. Some dampness will linger into Sunday, but then temperatures are
expected to start their rebound. By Memorial Day itself, Monday, seasonable
temperatures and some much-needed sunshine are forecast to return to much of
the Northeast. So, while the start of the long weekend might be a washout, you
might still salvage some of that barbecue and outdoor relaxation on the actual
holiday.
In essence, this rare May nor’easter is a stark reminder that even as we transition
into warmer months, Mother Nature can still throw us a curveball. It's a fascinating
example of how interconnected our global weather systems are, with anomalies in
the Arctic influencing the weather patterns thousands of miles away. So, as you
hunker down this weekend, perhaps use the opportunity to reflect on the
complexities of our planet's climate and the ever-changing tapestry of weather.
And then, cross your fingers for a sunny Memorial Day.
